Air freight demand, measured in cargo tonne kilometres (CTKs), fell by 3.3% in January 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, according to figures released today from the International Air Transport Association (IATA)

”January marked the tenth consecutive month of year-on-year declines in cargo volumes. The air cargo industry started the year on a weak footing. There was optimism that an easing of US-China trade tensions would give the sector a boost in 2020.

But that has been overtaken by the COVID-19 outbreak, which has severely disrupted global supply chains, although it did not have a major impact on January’s cargo performance. Tough times are ahead. The course of future events is unclear, but this is a sector that has proven its resilience time and again,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s chief executive.

Cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne kilometres (ACTKs), rose by 0.9% year-on-year in January 2020. Capacity growth has now outstripped demand growth for 21 consecutive months.

According to IATA, however, although the fall was China-linked this was not due to the coronavirus but because an early Chinese New Year, which typically results in a fall in general economic activity.

“It is unlikely that the COVID-19 outbreak had very much to do with January’s weak performance”, said IATA in a statement.  “Lunar New Year in 2020 was earlier than in 2019. This skewed 2020 numbers towards weakness as many Chinese manufacturers would be closed for the holiday period. February performance will give a better picture of how COVID-19 is impacting global air cargo.”