The International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) October 2022 global air cargo data suggest “headwinds” such as high fuel costs, the strength of the US dollar and rising inflation are hitting demand, which was down 13.6% on October last year.

“As many costs are denominated in dollars, the currency’s appreciation adds another layer of cost on top of high inflation and high jet fuel prices,” said the IATA.

The fall-off came despite global goods trade expanding by over 5%m in September, with shipping companies handling much of the growth as costs in that sector dropped compared to the surges seen during two years of pandemic restrictions and distorted demand.

In Asia-Pacific, the world’s biggest region for air cargo measured by volume, demand fell by over 14% – in part due to strict pandemic lockdowns in China.

In Europe, the fall was over 18%, with high inflation and proximity to the Russia-Ukraine war listed by IATA as factors.

“As 2022 closes out it appears that the current economic uncertainties will follow into the New Year and need continued close monitoring,” according to Willie Walsh, a former Aer Lingus and British Airways executive and now the IATA director general.